About the Use of Monte Carlo Simulation A number of our colleagues have released updated valuation and damages guidebooks. Despite these newer versions, none of these guidebooks discuss the use of statistics, modeling of time series, ARIMA, or Monte Carlo simulation. In this article, the author describes how the use of Monte Carlo simulation is gaining acceptance.
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Why The Black-Scholes Model Overvalues Conversion Options. The Black-Scholes method was the predominant model for many years, and was even endorsed by accounting rules prior to the introduction of FAS 157, even though it was never intended to be used for valuing complex securities or illiquid assets. Some have substituted lattice models or Monte Carlo simulation, making modifications or adjustment to attempt to compensate for illiquidity.
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Nerd’s Eye View, which provides commentary on financial planning news and developments, points out that a growing body of research shows our brains are not quite the logical, rational decision-making machines we think they are – or at least, wish they could be. Instead, our brains take shortcuts; we substitute easier questions for difficult ones, often without realizing it, and respond accordingly with our words and our actions. This can be especially problematic in the world of financial planning, where we often ask clients to make difficult decisions with limited information. As a result, questions like “what is…