A Question of Facts and Varying Rates “How could an expert apply such a high or low discount rate to a stream of future lost profits and the court find it acceptable?” This article highlights my research looking into discount rates for lost profits and why there are so many variations of a theme when it comes to making such a calculation. When attending professional conferences, I enjoy talking with other experts involved in the litigation support field. During almost every discussion regarding commercial damages (lost profits or business destruction), there is a comment about the discount rate applied for…
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A Review of the Basics for Lost Profits (Part IV) This is the fourth article in a series reviewing the basics for lost profits. Important in any assignment for calculating lost profits is understanding standards set by the courts. The three standards that courts use in assessing lost profit calculations are foreseeability, proximate cause, and reasonable certainty. In this segment, these court standards for providing a lost profits analysis are reviewed. Read Part I, Part II, and Part III. This is the fourth article in a series reviewing the basics for lost profits. In this segment, the court standards for…
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A Review of the Basics for Lost Profits (Part II) In this second part of our series reviewing the basics for lost profits, we will contrast the differences between valuing a lost business and calculating an ongoing business’s lost profits. Because many experts calculating lost profits also provide business valuations, both in and out of litigation, it is good to be reminded of the similarities and differences between these two approaches when assessing commercial damages. In this article, we review five key categories that separate the approaches for calculating lost profits from valuing a lost business. It also is a…
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A Review of the Basics for Lost Profits (Part I) Those who have worked in the forensic field for many years begin to take for granted how we approach and handle certain situations. We have a level of knowledge and experience that lets us move forward without much research. But, with this level of experience and understanding comes a level of forgetfulness. Not that we forget how to perform the analysis, but we forget why we need to perform an analysis a certain way. I believe it is good from time to time to stop and ask, “Why do we…
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Revisiting the Energy Capital Corp. v United States Case Causation It is important for the research and literature in our field to advance. Books, articles, and presentations help us improve and perfect the work we provide to the courts. It is also important that we review the history of our field to remind us “why we do things the way we do.” When reviewing the Energy Capital Corp. v United States case, financial experts will find several discussions regarding calculating lost profits that continue to provide a guide for other court opinions. This article will review three of those discussions:…
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A Unique Take on Causation Experts are becoming aware of how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected lost profit analyses that include 2020 and 2021. The pandemic and the slow recovery have created separate causations which may or may not become the proximate cause of a damaged business’ loss. For this reason, the effects of COVID-19 must be considered as an alternative causation to lost profits. The lockdowns across the country, the shuttering of non-essential businesses, and the overall fear which gripped the nation even as the economy was reopening caused a loss of revenue and profits to many businesses and…
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What Do the Courts Want? Finding the methodology for determining the appropriate discount rate in a lost profits case can be a convoluted journey. The numerator (the lost profits) may be adjusted through modeling. The denominator (the discount rate) may be a risk-free rate, a rate of return on investments, or the rate of return commensurate with generating the lost profits had no wrongful act occurred. And, whether modeling is used to adjust the lost profits will impact the risk premia that affects the discount rate. Experts must review the facts of each assignment and apply an approach which they…
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Reliability of Client’s Data This article discusses how experts can handle the unique situation of receiving unreliable data. Litigation and appraisal literature will be reviewed as will the author’s handling of unreliable data in a recent lost profits case. In the end, warning signs will be reviewed to alert the expert to potential problems with the projected data.
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The Case for Use of a Risk-Adjusted Rate in Damages Cases Robert Dunn and Everett Harry laid out a process for modeling and discounting future lost profits to present value in their article, Modeling and Discounting Future Damages. Not all experts agreed with the position presented by Dunn and Harry. In March, we revisited modeling and its level of acceptance. This article revisits the more controversial portion of the Dunn and Harry article, determining the discount rate. Dunn and Harry believed modeling the projected income stream reduced uncertainty and risk in an expert’s estimates. Therefore, they stated a lesser discount…
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For Calculating Future Lost Profits Robert Dunn and Everett Harry published their oft cited Modeling and Discounting Future Damages in 2002. The article laid out the process for assessing future lost profits and discounting them to present value. They argued modeling future losses reduced the uncertainty related to the loss calculation and therefore reduced the risk premium to be included in the discount rate. They also argued modeling future losses and using a risk-reduced, relatively low discount rate was easier for judges and juries to understand. While their discussion on a risk-adjusted discount rate has been somewhat controversial, the need…
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The Present Value of Future Lost Profits, and the Time Value of Money Experts estimating the present value of a business’ future lost profits have much less direction from the courts than their counterparts estimating the present value of a person’s lost earning capacity. Professional literature has attempted to fill this gap providing many articles discussing the differing methods for analyzing lost profits (e.g., yardstick, before-and-after, but for) or how to determine the discount rate by applying a weighted cost of average capital, equity rates of return, or some form of risk premium build-up. This article moves away from these…
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Held at the Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC, the Annual Consultants’ Conference Will Feature 57 Sessions Covering the Highest-Demand Specialty Areas in Financial Consulting The National Association of Certified Valuators and Analysts (NACVA) and the Consultants’ Training Institute (CTI) will collaborate to host the 2013 Annual Consultants’ Conference, June 5–8, 2013, in Washington, DC. Themed “Innovate. Collaborate. Succeed.,” the four-day conference will serve as a forum where ideas, marketplaces, and professionals from around the globe intersect to expand their networks, explore concepts, and share ideas on how to meet the demands of the dynamic and unpredictable world economy. Find out…