A Call to Opportunity (and Survival) As the use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools continues to become mainstream, it is no wonder that so many professional services are becoming even more commoditized than they were pre-AI. Many professional service providers, including valuation practitioners, are feeling the combined impact of price compression from clients and higher expectations of service quality and responsiveness. For those of us who plan to continue practicing as professionals for longer than the next few years, the long view is rather disconcerting. Within the next decade, AI is expected to become one-million times more powerful than it…
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A Case Study In articles published in The Value Examiner, “A Hybrid Approach to Estimating Company Specific Risk,” and “A Hybrid Approach to Determining Company Specific Risk: Using Monte Carlo Simulation,” the author explains the theoretical basis for using a company specific risk premium in the build-up method and presents a methodology for developing the company specific risk premium. Then he shows how to incorporate Monte Carlo simulation into the model. The model is a variation of David Wood’s MUM for allocating personal and business goodwill and the risk rate component model. The following article is a review of some…
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Using Weights and Factors to Quantify Risk This is a condensation of the author’s article, originally published in The Value Examiner, July/August 2022. The author proposes an alternative way of calculating the company specific risk premium. This is a condensation of my article originally published in The Value Examiner, July/August 2022. Most of us who value businesses are not valuing businesses in the middle market or the size of businesses that the major writers and instructors on business valuation are valuing. We generally value businesses with revenues under $3,000,000, if not $1,000,000. Not only is there a substantial difference between…
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Alleged Best Practices to Whom? Peter J. Butler, CFA, ASA, MBA, founder of Valtrend, LLC and inventor of the Total Cost of Equity Calculator (TCOE), responds to comments made by Robert Reilly and Connor Thurman regarding best practices used to arrive at the company specific risk; the latter article did not discuss the TCOE and here he “key[s] in on Part III—the section which addresses empirical evidence in the selection of the company specific risk premium (CSRP)” and merits of the TCOE. Introduction I read all four parts of the “Best Practices for Estimating the Company-Specific Risk Premium” in NACVA’s…
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What Do We Do Moving Forward in Time? The coronavirus and the events unleashed by the outbreak were unforeseeable to professionals preparing reports as of the end of 2019. What do we, as valuation and litigation support professionals, do moving forward in time when we are engaged to value a business? Here, the author, Ron Rudich, answers these questions. Gary R. Trugman wrote in his tome, Understanding Business Valuation, A Practical Guide to Valuing Small to Medium-Sized Businesses, Second Edition, beginning on page 510, the following: Valuation as of a Specific Date A business valuation is similar to a balance…
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The Cost of Equity Capital (Part II of II) This is the second of a two-part series article focused on issues that arise estimating the cost of equity capital. In most forensic-related valuation analyses, one procedure that affects most valuations is the measurement of the present value discount rate. This discount rate analysis may affect the forensic-related valuation of private companies, business ownership interests, securities, and intangible assets. This discussion summarizes three models that analysts typically apply to estimate the cost of equity capital component of the present value discount rate: (1) the capital asset pricing model, (2) the modified…
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The Cost of Equity Capital (Part I of II) This is the first of a two-part series article focused on issues that arise estimating the cost of equity capital. In most forensic-related valuation analyses, one procedure that affects most valuations is the measurement of the present value discount rate. This discount rate analysis may affect the forensic-related valuation of private companies, business ownership interests, securities, and intangible assets. This discussion summarizes three models that analysts typically apply to estimate the cost of equity capital component of the present value discount rate: (1) the capital asset pricing model, (2) the modified…
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Fresenius is the First (General) MAC in Delaware History (Part I of II) What did Big Foot, the Loch Ness Monster, aliens at Area 51, and Material Adverse Changes (MACs) in Delaware used to have in common? They all allegedly existed but their existence was never proven. That recently changed with a Delaware Chancery Court judge’s 246-page decision in October 2018 that was affirmed by the Delaware Supreme Court in December 2018. Fresenius is the first time a buyer successfully terminated a deal due to a MAC clause in a Delaware court. This (and a follow-up) article summarizes the key…
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Unsystematic Risk Premia in Privately Held Companies How does a valuation professional quantify and defend the unsystematic risk premia (URP)? Is the latter a factor that helps explain why CAPM is less frequently used valuing a privately held company? As for Total Beta, is that any better than the use of Beta? In this article, the author suggests if one accepts that imperfect diversification (ID) explains the risk premia, he suspects that the risk level is a function of the buyer pool or market participant pool and that characteristic will validate whether the base URP should be adjusted up or…
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Tax Controversy Insights In matters argued before the U.S. Tax Court, valuation professionals are frequently asked to provide opinions related to the value of closely held businesses and of fractional ownership interests in closely held businesses. This discussion relates to a recent appeal of a U.S. Tax Court decision involving such valuation issues. The case in question is Natale B. Giustina v. Commissioner. In this case, the Tax Court’s selection of the method for valuing a fractional ownership interest in a closely held business was appealed to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. The Appeals Court…
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The impact on shareholder value Knowing the value of a business and delivering real value to a client company entails far more than using EBITDA multiples or going along with a rule of thumb to keep the peace. As professionals, valuators must be far more rigorous in their engagements, and focus on delivering value. The obligation to identify, measure, manage, and mitigate the risks are their responsibility. In this candid analysis, Dr. Carl Sheeler shares some insights, based on his 1,000+ engagements, where he has found problems that led to disputes, misalignment of expectations, and company-specific risks that impair value…
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Estate of Natale B. Giustina v. Commissioner What happens when a case lands in the United States Tax Court where Form 706 found the fair market value of a business share at $12.6 million and the IRS estimates it’s worth $36 million? Find out, in Estate of Natale B. Giustina v. Commissioner! At issue was a 41 percent share in a closely held timber company. Meanwhile, in the Delaware Chancery Court, In re Answers Corp. Shareholders Litigation finds plaintiff shareholders arguing to enjoin the sale of the company because they believed it was of higher worth. The Court finds the…